Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures were mixed on Friday, with front months fractionally to 1 1/4 cents lower. May was down 2.35% this week after being 2.99% lower the week prior. In their monthly WASDE update, USDA increased US ending stocks for 18/19 by 100 mbu to 1.835 bbu. That was due to a reduction to ethanol demand (-25 mbu) and lower exports (-75 mbu). Total commitments are lagging a year ago by 1.5% but accumulated exports are 39.69% larger. On the world side, both Brazil (94.5 MMT) and Argentina (46 MMT) production numbers were UNCH. Ending stocks for 18/19 were down 1.25 MMT at 308.53 MMT on the world balance sheet, with China feed corn usage up 3 MMT as they push a hog diet heavy in corn and lower in soybean meal. Up to date CFTC data showed specs in corn futures and options adding 72,318 contracts to their net short position of 176,777 contracts as of March 5.

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.54 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

May 19 Corn closed at $3.64 1/4, down 1 cent,

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.73 1/2, down 3/4 cent

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.80 1/4, down 3/4 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures posted losses of 6 to 7 cents in the front months on Friday, with May losing 1.73% this week. Meal futures were down $2.90/ton in the nearby contract, with soy oil 2 points lower. The USDA reported a private export sale of 664,000 MT of soybeans to China for 18/19 delivery. China hiked projected full year soy imports to 85 MMT from 83.65 MMT, citing lower canola imports. USDA is at 88 MMT. The US S&D table had a 10 mbu lower carryout for 2018/19 of 900 mbu this morning, as crush was raised by that same number. World ending stocks were up 0.45 MMT to 107.17 MMT, with Chinese crush down 1 MMT. Brazilian production was trimmed by 0.5 MMT to 116.5 MMT.

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $8.83 3/4, down 7 cents,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $8.95 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.09 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $9.21, down 6 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Soybean Meal closed at $299.10, down $2.90,

Mar 19 Soybean Oil closed at $29.39, down $0.02

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures ended the Friday session with most winter wheat contracts steady to 4 cents higher on profit taking. MPLS was down 1 to 3 3/4 cents. On the week, May CBT was down 3.88%, with KC 3.15% lower and MPLS 1.61% in the red. USDA added another 45 mbu to their 18/19 US wheat ending stocks projection. That was in part due to a 35 mbu reduction to exports at 965 mbu. The World carryout projection was raised by 3 MMT to 270.53 as well, with Indian stocks up 2.9 MMT. The Friday afternoon Commitment of Traders report indicated money managers in CBT futures and options added 13,882 contracts to their net short position of 72,449 contracts as of Tuesday. In KC wheat futures and options, they added to their record net short position, now at -44,870 contracts as of 3/5. Algeria purchased 300,000 MT of optional origin durum wheat in a tender this week. Turkey is seeking 290,000 MT of wheat in a tender set to close on March 14.

May 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.39 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents,

May 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.30 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

May 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.49 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures closed the Friday session with 40 to 75 cent gains. Feeder cattle futures were up 70 cents to $1.70 on the day, with March up 1.91% this week. The CME feeder cattle index was up 27 cents on March 7 at $140.03. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher in the Friday afternoon report. Choice boxes were up 9 cents at $226.13 with Select 24 cents higher at $218.78 USDA has week to date FI cattle slaughter at 603,000 head including Saturday. Cash trade was reported at $128 in the South this week, with sales of $128-128.50 and $205 in the North. The delayed February Cattle on Feed report showed Feb 1 on feed at 11.678 million head, up 0.41%. January placements were down 5.27% from last year at 1.959 million head, as marketings were up 2.8% at 1.91 million head. The WASDE showed projected beef production for 2019 at 27.3 billion pounds, down 310 million from February. Both first and second quarter production were trimmed by 100 mil lbs on lighter carcass weights.

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $129.675, up $0.725,

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $120.950, up $0.600,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $117.175, up $0.650,

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.925, up $1.025

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.700, up $1.700

May 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.525, up $1.450

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures saw strong $1.25 to $2.825 gains in most contracts on Friday, with April up 7.36% this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 10 cents from the previous day @ $51.75 on March 6. Futures expect cash to rally, but the puzzle pieces haven’t settled into place yet. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 79 cents on Friday afternoon at an average weighted price of $65.04. The national base hog carcass value was up $1.21 on Friday afternoon at a weighted average of $45.86. Pork production for 2019 was estimated at 27.43 billion lbs this morning by USDA, up 90 million from last month.

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $60.550, up $2.825,

May 19 Hogs closed at $68.925, up $2.350

Jun 19 Hogs closed at $78.175, up $2.650

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures settled with 12 to 38 point gains in the front months on Friday. USDA left the US cotton balance sheet UNCH this morning, with the only adjustment going to the average farm price range, down 2 cents to 69-71. World ending stocks were up 509,000 bales to 76.09 million on larger Brazil production. The Cotlook A Index was down 40 points on March 7 to 82.25 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 63.42 cents/ lb on Thursday, up 75 points. The Cotton Ginnings report indicated that 17.471 million bales had been ginned as of March 1, down 10.67% from the same time last year. Spec in cotton futures and options trimmed their net short position, now at 18,301 contracts, by 2,723 contracts in the week of 3/5.

May 19 Cotton closed at 73.490, up 38 points,

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 74.630, up 33 points

Oct 19 Cotton closed at 73.990, up 24 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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