DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/17 11:28
Corn, Beans Higher at Midday
Light gains in slow trade are seen at midday; illustrated by March corn 2
1/4 cent trading range.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are flat. The interest rate products are
mixed. The dollar index is 5 points higher. Energies are lower with crude down
$0.60. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are lower with gold
Corn trade is near the daily highs at midday up 2 cents; the overnight low
as a quarter cent lower. It seems like the market is trying to gain sideways
momentum with the break failing, but we just can't muster up much of a rally
here. The South American recent weather pattern remains intact with a mix of
excessive rain and pockets of dryness with some potential improvement. Ethanol
margins remain poor with futures still near the lows, while blender margins
have struggled to maintain gains. Winter weather will likely slow corn movement
again, keeping basis flat to firmer. The government partial shutdown is
expected to continue to limit news. On the March chart support is the lower
Bollinger band at $3.70 1/2 with the 100-day at $3.77 resistance.
Soybean trade is 2 cents higher at midday with March nearby trade working
just below $9.00; this is the second day of light buying after the break with
weather support and demand concerns illustrating the bull and bear battling.
Meal is fractionally higher, and oil is 10 points higher. South America weather
items remain in the recent weather pattern with harvest going early amid heat
and pockets of dryness in Brazil with generally disappointing yields so far,
and excessive rain potential in Argentina. Chinese trade issues regarding
technology flared up again overnight. Basis has been pretty flat with the
weather likely to add support. Forecasts are being monitored closely. Support
is the 100-day at $8.91 with resistance at the $9.04 20-day moving average.
Wheat trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with wheat following corn
higher with trade looking to break the streak of poor day session finishes. The
dollar has bounced last week into this week, but remains in the lower part our
two-month range. Southern Hemisphere harvest will continue in the near term.
North American winter wheat should see a cool down this week, with snow cover
expected in front of the cold snap for most areas but will need to be watched
with longer-term forecast warmer. Russia domestic prices will be watched
closely with firmer values again there. On the March Kansas City chart support
is the $4.89 1/2 lower Bollinger Band. Resistance is at the 20-day at $5.00
just above our midday trade, and then the 50-day at $5.04.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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